Retired British colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commander of NATO's rapid response forces to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats, notes that Ukraine's operation in the Kursk region could become a turning point in the history of the Russian Federation, just like the first battle of 1943.
Points of attention
- The offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Kurshchyna may become a turning point in the history of the Russian Federation, changing the political situation in the country.
- An operation in the Kursk region would hurt Putin, forcing him to deploy forces to defend the area against further incursions and could help destabilize the regime.
- The invasion of the Kursk region shows the vulnerability of the Russian regime and may force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table.
How the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kurshchyna will affect the history of the Russian Federation
Ukraine's current operation in the Kursk region means that he may now be remembered as the source of Russia's humiliation. And if the West allows Kyiv to take advantage of its successes, it could be the site of another turning point in Russian history, Bretton-Gordon wrote.
Ukraine's current move will harm Putin for at least three reasons, the colonel said.
First, it means that Putin will have to divert forces to defend against further incursions across the border, which are no doubt planned to further unbalance the Russian aggressors.
Kyiv added an additional element of danger to Russian planning. It is also now clear that Russia has no mobile reserves to plug the gaps in its defenses, and certainly no signs that the local population has any desire to pick up scythes and pickaxes to slow down the Ukrainian advance.
Second, according to Bretton-Gordon, the Kursk operation "causes deep discomfort and may help destabilize Putin's rule."
The Kremlin cannot defend Russia's own territory, let alone defeat Ukraine, and for the first time this issue seems to be receiving significant attention in the leading mass media, the colonel emphasized.
Third, the author added, the invasion of the Kursk region demonstrates that Ukraine does not need the same number of people or weapons as the Russians to change the situation.
In other words, Ukraine's victory is by no means unattainable.
According to the colonel, now the West should provide Ukraine with the opportunity to consolidate tactical successes in Kursk in order to force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table.
Ukraine humiliated Putin by attacking Kurshchyna
Former British army officer Colonel Richard Kemp, in a column for the British edition of The Telegraph, notes that Ukraine's offensive on Kurshchyna caught the Putin regime by surprise, showing that it is ready to fight.
The offensive in Kursk also shows that even battles of this scale do not attract Putin to the revenge of the West, which was so feared.
This could prompt Biden to ease restrictions on the use of weapons in Russia, which have been a major obstacle to Ukrainian operations. We saw this fear again when the attack on Kursk began, and the Americans claimed that it caught them off guard. This is far from plausible, given the close integration of Ukraine with NATO, as well as the intelligence capabilities of the United States, Kemp emphasizes.
Peace negotiations can also be one of the goals. For Ukraine, the occupation of Russian territory can be a strong bargaining chip.
However, this will require holding on to that land, including supply routes, for extended periods against increasing ground and air attacks. For this reason, such a step may be premature.
Whatever the military and political intentions, this operation succeeds. Because Ukraine has shown the world that it is ready to fight, the colonel concluded.
