As reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian soldiers are prioritizing offensive actions in the Hulyaipil direction rather than defense in the Oleksandrivka direction, where Ukrainian troops are successfully counterattacking. However, this does not change anything.
Points of attention
- The Kremlin's decision to transfer strategic reserves to Zaporizhia highlights the challenges faced by the 5th and 58th armies in the region.
- Analysts note that Ukrainian strikes in the Oleksandrivka direction pose a significant threat to Russian troops, yet the Kremlin appears to be overlooking this danger.
What is known about the plans of the Russian army?
According to the latest data, Russian troops are concentrating their forces in the area of responsibility of the 5th Combined Arms Army, which operates west of Hulyaipol.
Despite this, the Russian army is not trying too hard to hold the direction of Oleksandrivka, where the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is ongoing.
Analysts point out that Ukrainian strikes in the Oleksandrivka direction are truly dangerous for enemy troops, but the Kremlin stubbornly ignores this threat.
ISW also emphasizes that Moscow decided to attract strategic reserves and transfer them to Zaporizhia, in particular near Hulyaipole and Orekhov — it is there that the 5th and 58th armies of the Russian Federation are experiencing an abnormal lack of forces and resources.
The Kremlin has ordered its troops to capture Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026.
However, according to American analysts, these enemy plans will be unrealistic to implement.
Despite the fact that the Russians mostly managed to take Pokrovsk, the capture of Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka within the specified time frame is unlikely.
