After a detailed analysis, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that the Russian army's losses on the battlefield are so massive that it is impossible to form strategic reserves for a major enemy offensive. This is one of the biggest mistakes of the Russian General Staff.
Points of attention
- The constraints on Russia's military strength contrast with its numerical population superiority, posing serious operational challenges that may persist in future engagements.
- The analysis suggests that without significant changes, the Russian army may struggle to achieve a real breakthrough on the front line in 2026, unless external factors come into play.
The Russian army failed to correctly calculate its forces and resources
American experts point out that the current pace of recruitment of Russian volunteers is barely enough to cover losses on the battlefield.
All this leads to the fact that the Russian army has actually lost the ability to concentrate efforts on a specific section of the front without having to transfer units there from other areas.
In addition, this serious problem leads to the weakening of the Russian flanks, which Ukrainian soldiers often use as part of their counterattacks.
The limitations of Russia's available military strength, as opposed to its overall numerical superiority in population, are a serious constraint on Russian operations and will likely remain so in the coming year.
All this indicates that the Russian army will not actually be able to radically accelerate the pace and scale of its advance along the front line in 2026.
The enemy will have very little chance of a real breakthrough unless the allies abandon Ukraine to its fate.
