According to the experts of The Economist, in 2025 Ukraine and Russia may agree on a ceasefire under the pressure of the new US President Donald Trump.
Points of attention
- It is predicted that the agreement could lead to a semi-frozen state of war.
- A decision to end hostilities would be an important step, but would require solid security guarantees for Ukraine, possibly including NATO membership
- An important factor is the exhaustion of the American aid package for Ukraine and Trump's return to the White House.
Trump can achieve a drastic change in the situation at the front
Journalists draw attention to the fact that Ukraine and the Russian Federation are currently facing identical problems on the battlefield.
First of all, it is about the lack of weapons, manpower and funding. Against this background, hostilities may subside, leading to the so-called "semi-frozen conflict."
2025 could be the year when hostilities largely end. Both sides are close to exhaustion, and supporters of each would like the conflict to end. In Washington, this will be a priority of the new administration of Donald Trump, the editors of the publication predict.
It is also impossible to ignore the fact that next year the American aid package to Ukraine in the amount of 61 billion dollars will be exhausted.
Moreover, the stocks of military equipment are running out in the States, which may also affect Kyiv's decision.
In what situation can Ukraine find itself?
Analysts believe that already in 2025, the pressure on Ukraine from Russia will significantly increase — the Kremlin will try to conduct negotiations on its own terms.
Within the potential agreement, there is a risk that Ukraine will have to temporarily accept the loss of part of its territory.
Putin will not want to give up the 7% that Russia seized during its first invasion in 2014 (Crimea and eastern Ukraine).
The Kremlin will also demand to retain control of some or most of the additional 11% that Russia seized after the invasion in 2022."
Instead, Ukraine should receive reliable security guarantees, the ideal option of which is full membership in NATO. This would probably be an acceptable solution for Kyiv, although painful for Ukraine.
