According to analyst Ron Busso, the latest package of sanctions by the European Union against Russia is unlikely to be a powerful blow to the aggressor country. There is a high probability that the Kremlin knows how to avoid serious consequences. Currently, only US President Donald Trump can undermine Russia's ability to continue the war.
Points of attention
- Russia might employ tactics like expanding the 'shadow fleet' to bypass sanctions, but Trump's threat of secondary sanctions poses a significant deterrent.
- The ultimate power to impact Russia's actions and potentially push for a peace agreement with Ukraine lies with Donald Trump.
The final move is Trump's
Ron Busso points out that oil refineries in China, India, and Turkey have increased imports of Russian raw materials because they have become cheaper.
We cannot ignore the fact that this reduces the effectiveness of sanctions.
India, which accounted for 16% of Europe's diesel and jet fuel imports last year, is likely to suffer the most from the new ban. In 2024, Russian oil also accounted for 38% of India's imports.
What is also important to understand is that the new ban does not cover countries that are net oil exporters, meaning that the biggest beneficiaries of the new restriction are likely to be producers from Gulf countries with large refining facilities, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
It is quite likely that the aggressor country Russia will be able to mitigate the consequences of the new sanctions.
First of all, it may be about the expansion of the "shadow fleet" or concealing the origin of oil by transferring it from ship to ship in the ocean.
In the current situation, the most powerful trump card remains in the hands of American leader Donald Trump.
The latter threatened to impose secondary sanctions against Russia if it does not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days, starting on July 14, 2025.
