Analysts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that US President Donald Trump's decision to temporarily lift sanctions against Russian oil tankers is extremely beneficial for the Kremlin. It will give Russia the funds to continue its war against Ukraine and save it from a quick defeat on the battlefield.
Points of attention
- Despite facing budgetary constraints and economic difficulties, the temporary ease of sanctions and the global oil shock have offered Putin a lifeline in the current situation.
- Analysts suggest that Trump's move is playing into Putin's hands and could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Trump is playing on Putin's side again
American analysts point out that the worsening economic situation in Russia has pushed Putin to take politically unpopular and economically suboptimal measures.
As you know, this primarily concerns an increase in VAT and a decrease in the key interest rate.
Moreover, the aggressor country cannot solve the problem of building its armed forces. The main reason for this is budgetary constraints, in particular Moscow's inability to pay expensive one-time bonuses for indefinite conscription.
Despite this, Donald Trump's decision to temporarily ease sanctions against Russia and the global oil shock were a real salvation for Putin, especially in the current situation.
Russia is struggling to muster the forces, equipment, and internal support needed to continue the war, but an increase in cash flow could allow Russia to strengthen its capabilities.
