Former British army officer Colonel Richard Kemp, in a column for the British edition of The Telegraph, notes that Ukraine's offensive on Kurshchyna caught the Putin regime by surprise, showing that it is ready to fight.
Points of attention
- Ukraine demonstrated its readiness to fight with a successful offensive in Kurshchyna, which pushed Ukrainian forces farther from the border than Russian forces had in two years.
- The purpose of the offensive of the Armed Forces may be to reduce the pressure elsewhere on the front line and cause the redeployment of significant Russian forces to the Kursk region.
- An offensive on Kurshchyna could be aimed at seizing the Kursk nuclear power plant, which could have serious consequences and generate support for the West in both camps.
- The occupation of Russian territory can be a strategic step for Ukraine, but it will require a long stay in the conflict zone with the appropriate means and defenses.
- The events in Kursk are noted as an important morale boost for Ukrainians and may have significant political consequences in the international arena.
Colonel Kemp named the probable targets of the offensive of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna
Colonel Richard Kemp noted that during the offensive on the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian forces advanced further than either side in almost two years. Moreover, after four days of fighting, the Russian forces still did not stop the offensive.
The reason for this is the weak defense along this part of the border. The Russian Federation sent local irregular forces and conscripts and one battalion of response forces there. However, it was apparently destroyed by a long-range missile strike, Kemp said.
According to Colonel Kemp, the events in Kursk became a huge morale boost for Ukrainians.
Militarily, the operation could be aimed at reducing pressure elsewhere on the front line, forcing the Russians to redeploy significant forces to deal with it, which may already be planned.
Richard Kemp
Retired British Army Colonel
Kemp noted that Ukraine's goal may also be to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant. This would be the main prize, and the risk of radioactive fallout would seriously hamper efforts to repel it.
The failure of last year's summer offensive backfired, compounded by the war in the Middle East, which diverted attention and resources from Ukraine. This bold maneuver can revive support for the West, and most importantly, potentially increase support in both camps in the US elections, the British colonel writes.
The offensive in Kursk also shows that even battles of this scale do not attract Putin to the revenge of the West, which was so feared.
This could prompt Biden to ease restrictions on the use of weapons in Russia, which have been a major obstacle to Ukrainian operations. We saw this fear again when the attack on Kursk began, and the Americans claimed that it caught them off guard. This is far from plausible, given Ukraine's close integration with NATO, as well as the US's intelligence capabilities, Kemp emphasizes.
Peace negotiations can also be one of the goals. For Ukraine, the occupation of Russian territory can be a strong bargaining chip.
However, this will require holding on to that land, including supply routes, for extended periods against increasing ground and air attacks. For this reason, such a step may be premature.
Whatever the military and political intentions, this operation succeeds. Because Ukraine has shown the world that it is ready to fight, the colonel concluded.
How many soldiers of the Armed Forces are conducting an offensive in the Kursk region
Since the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet commented on the breakthrough into Russian territory, there is currently no accurate information.
However, according to the Forbes publication, in general, up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers may be in the zone of invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in and around the Kursk Region.
It is also reported that three armed forces brigades are currently advancing on Russian territory, each with up to 2,000 people: the 22nd, 88th, and 80th.
For the breakthrough, Ukrainian forces use Soviet and Western equipment.
Artillery, drones and air defense play an important supporting role.
