According to Michael Bonner, a military analyst at the RAND Corp., the Armed Forces of Ukraine have every chance of defeating the Russian army at the front, but a specific formula must be used for this.
What Ukraine needs to win
According to the expert's calculations, in order to win, Kyiv and its partners will need to spend from $54 to 72 billion every year.
These funds should be used to produce sufficient missiles and artillery shells to enable Ukrainian soldiers to launch a counteroffensive.
This potential formula for Ukraine's victory has two prerequisites. One of them is that the Armed Forces are accumulating powerful ground combat forces capable of defeating approximately 500,000 Russian soldiers, Michael Boner emphasised.
He is also convinced that Ukrainian defenders can leave at the border in 1991 — this forecast was confirmed by more than one study.
AFU needs more weapons for a powerful counteroffensive
Michael Bonner points out that the Ukrainian authorities have the opportunity to mobilize a strike group capable of launching a decisive offensive.
If they had to rotate forces for about two years in conjunction with a new conscription, they would probably be able to re-equip a sufficient number of brigades, the expert emphasised.
He noted that Ukraine's biggest problem is not the lack of mobilized personnel but the lack of weapons and ammunition.
The analyst added that most of the battalions are still not fully equipped. NATO must deliver on its promises.
According to the latest data, the Ukrainian soldiers will need a constant flow of ammunition, which includes 2.4 million artillery shells, 4,800 air defence missiles capable of protecting cities from Russian missiles, and 8,760 guided bomber missiles per year.
