The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that a counteroffensive by Ukrainian defenders could have thwarted Russia's plans for further advancement in the Zaporizhia region, as well as the expected spring-summer offensive of the Russian Federation on the "Belt of Fortresses" in the Donetsk region.
Points of attention
- Despite initial challenges, the Armed Forces of Ukraine displayed tactical prowess in disrupting Russia's plans for exploitation in the region.
- The counteroffensive in February 2026 not only halted immediate Russian advances but also disrupted their long-term plans, demonstrating the resilience of Ukrainian forces.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to outwit the Russian army again
American analysts have drawn attention to the fact that the Russian army has transferred elite airborne and marine infantry units from the Pokrovsky direction and the Dobropil tactical district in eastern Ukraine to the southern front line.
What is important to understand is that this happened before the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive.
In fact, the point is that the enemy planned to continue using tactical successes in the Hulyaipol direction in the spring and summer of 2026, but Ukrainian soldiers thwarted these plans in time.
Thus, Ukraine's counteroffensive in February 2026 could have thwarted Russia's plans to further exploit tactical successes in the Zaporizhia region, and could also have negatively affected the expected spring-summer 2026 offensive on the Ukrainian "belt of fortresses," the ISW team emphasizes.
Analysts believe that the chaotic decisions and actions of the Russian invaders on the battlefield indicate that they do not understand where to launch their offensive next.
