The aid of the Western countries to Ukraine will help stop the advance of the Russian invaders in the Donetsk region.
How will US aid affect a possible Russian counteroffensive?
The report notes that the Russians have concentrated a division-sized force on the Berdychi-Novokalynovo line northwest of Avdiivka, consisting mainly of four brigades of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces.
Analysts suggest that these forces pursue three complementary tasks:
advancing west from Berdychi;
advancing to the side of the village of Ocheretyne;
advancing from Ocheretyne further west along road O0544 (Keramik-Myrnograd);
advancing to the north in the direction of the village of Novokalynove.
At the same time, ISW notes, Russian troops do not have enough time to prepare for a wider breakthrough, since the arsenal of the Armed Forces will soon be replenished with military aid from European countries and the United States, if the Senate passes a bill on additional appropriations.
Analysts recalled that EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell said on April 22 that the Czech Republic's initiative to deliver the first artillery ammunition to Ukraine will arrive by the end of May or the beginning of June.
The ability to match the ratio of artillery fire to the forces of the aggressor on the battlefield will be critical to the ability of the Defence Forces to deprive Russian troops of the initiative and slow down the pace of their advance in the Avdiivka direction, the report says.
According to ISW analysts, the Russian military command is aware that the "window" of offensive opportunities will close after the arrival of Western aid and is trying to consolidate offensive successes before the Armed Forces receive military aid from partners.
Given the development of events, the Institute for the Study of War predicts that in the coming weeks, the Russian troops will continue to win tactical victories along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line and other areas of the theatre of operations while waiting for the arrival of Western aid.
What is the situation at the front?
Currently, the hottest areas on the front are Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove in the Donetsk region and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that terrorists plan to occupy Chasiv Yar by May 9. If the enemy can be repulsed, it will destroy his plans for a full-scale counteroffensive in June.
According to the head of state, Ukraine has a chance to seize the initiative on the battlefield, but support with weapons from the United States is needed.
The DIU chief, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, noted that Ukraine will face a rather tricky situation from mid-May to early June. However, "Armageddon" will not happen.
Meanwhile, ZelenskYy and US President Joe Biden agreed on the supply of ATACMS ballistic missiles.
The first batch of US aid will be sent within a few days after Biden signed the bill for the $60 billion package of military assistance to Ukraine, which the US Senate plans to vote on on April 23.
