After the start of Russia's large-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine launched a large number of strikes against the facilities of the Russian occupation army in Crimea and destroyed or damaged about half of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, moving closer to the probable liberation of the occupied peninsula.
Points of attention
- Ukraine has launched strikes against Russian facilities in Crimea, edging closer to the possible liberation of the peninsula.
- The return of Crimea poses significant challenges due to the military infrastructure and specific geography of the region.
- The Ukrainian military needs a substantial strike force to overcome Russian occupation and retake Crimea.
- Factors such as limited naval capabilities and Russian defense fortifications make it extremely difficult for Ukraine to reclaim the peninsula.
- Strategic planning, firepower accumulation, and potential risks of heavy losses or nuclear weapons use underline the complexity of the situation.
How Ukraine approached the prospect of the liberation of Crimea
According to the journalists of the publication, the Ukrainian military used conventional and naval UAVs, as well as anti-ship missiles, to attack the facilities of the criminal army of the Russian Federation in the occupied Crimea and ships of the Black Sea Fleet.
All this forced the ships of the Russian invaders to leave Crimea.
However, as the authors of the article note, Ukraine will need a huge strike force to return Crimea occupied by Russia.
How difficult it will be to return Crimea to Ukraine
It will be extremely difficult to return Crimea, because Crimea is essentially an island. Landing is impossible because Ukraine does not have enough ships to transport a large number of troops and their heavy equipment. In addition, Russia still has long-range aircraft and submarines that are essentially invulnerable at sea, explains retired US Marine Corps Col. Mark Kanchian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Basil Germond, an international security expert at the University of Lancaster in Great Britain, notes that Russia still has an extensive military infrastructure in Crimea, which the Ukrainian military will need to destroy.
Western analysts note that it will not be easy for the Ukrainian military to reach the occupied peninsula, as it is located far from the front line.
The criminal army of the Russian Federation still has powerful lines of fortifications on the way to the peninsula, and the Ukrainian military lacks the personnel for a large-scale offensive.
Crimea is located deep inside the territory occupied by Russia and far from the current front lines, Kanchian notes.
The criminal army of the Russian Federation strengthens its own lines of defense with anti-tank ditches, labyrinths of trenches, "dragon's teeth" and minefields.
The defense lines of the Russian occupiers are mainly located in the north of the peninsula.
The Russians are strongly fortified and well defended in these areas, and the Ukrainians need time to break this defense, - explains Mark Temnytskyi, a freelance researcher at the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council.
In the absence of reaching Crimea by sea or by plane, the Ukrainian military will be forced to break through the defense lines of the Russian occupiers.
The authors of the material emphasize that Ukraine began to conduct regular strikes against the air defense systems of the Russian occupiers in Crimea with the help of Western long-range weapons.
However, as journalists note, in order to limit the strikes of the Ukrainian military, the criminal army of the Russian Federation places military facilities near populated areas.
Millions of citizens live on the peninsula, and Ukrainians do not want to harm the peaceful population, Temnytskyi emphasizes.
However, a number of Western experts are convinced that Ukraine will be able to return Crimea if it has enough weapons and troops and time to do so.
In order to carry out the operation to de-occupy Crimea, the Ukrainian military will need to take control of the Perekop Isthmus, which connects Crimea with the mainland of Ukraine.
To do this, the Ukrainian military must first break through the so-called "Surovykin line of defense", which consists of a system of defensive fortifications and obstacles in the south and east.
The founder of the German think tank European Resilience Initiative Center, Serhiy Sumlenny, notes that currently the question is how long it will take for Ukraine to accumulate the required amount of firepower.
According to him, if the Ukrainian military really manages to reach Crimea and destroy the illegally built Crimean bridge by Russia and the last ferry crossing across the Sea of Azov, the Russian occupiers on the peninsula will be isolated, cut off from all supply routes.
There is not a single case in history when anyone could protect Crimea from an attack, Sumlenny adds.
For example, in 1921, the Red Army of the Soviet Union defeated the White Guards and took control of the peninsula, and in 1941, the Axis countries invaded the Soviet Union during Operation Barbarossa, and their ground forces besieged Sevastopol.
Therefore, from my point of view, the moment the Ukrainian army appears on the land bridge - the Perekop Isthmus - between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, the Russians will face a very simple choice: either they immediately retreat from Crimea, or they are killed, or they are taken in captivity, - concludes the analyst.
However, other experts are more cautious about this issue.
Temnytskyi says that a full-scale invasion to retake Crimea is "extremely unlikely" because of the huge Ukrainian losses it would cause.
There are also fears that Russia may use nuclear weapons if its troops find themselves on the verge of losing Crimea.
Due to its complexity, the return of Crimea will be the last event of the war, and not an intermediate one - predicts Mark Kanchian.
