The head of Ukrainian intelligence said that a second military mutiny in the Russian Federation requires a leader on the ground.
Points of attention
- According to Kirill Budanov, a leader on the spot is needed for a repeated military mutiny in the Russian Federation.
- Preparations for the mutiny of the private military company "Wagner" were known to Ukrainian intelligence in advance.
- Budanov, that in Russia at the moment there are no impulses to the scenario of a military mutiny.
- The probability of a new rebellion in the Russian Federation is assessed as unlikely due to the lack of a strong leader.
Is there a possibility of a new rebellion in the Russian Federation?
As the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said, Ukraine knew about the preparations of the mutiny by the private military company (PMC) "Wagner" six months in advance.
However, today, there are no impulses towards this scenario in Russia. However, if we talk about conditional rebellions of ethnic groups, this requires a leader on the ground.
There is a good leader, he is with us, but he is gaining capacity. Then you can talk about something. Nothing ever happens by itself, the rebellion of the Wagnerites was prepared well in advance.
Kyrylo Budanov
Head of GUR
Regarding Prigozhin's rebellion, Kyrylo Budanov noted that the former head of the "Wagner" PMC was a complex personality and an ultra-patriot. During the mutiny, he planned to go to the Kremlin and in his thoughts was going to save Russia.
But they explained to him: if you come in, no one will be able to "shoe" you here. But this will not immediately save Russia, but tear it apart. Because at one moment you will be in the Kremlin, and the nominal leadership of the state will be somewhere else. And you will not connect this love anymore. And he stopped, listened to Lukashenko (Olexandr Lukashenko, — ed.), it was he who told him, Budanov explained.
Budanov assessed the likelihood of a new rebellion in Russia
According to the head of Ukrainian intelligence, mutinies in the aggressor country against the background of worsening economic problems are unlikely, so it is not worth counting on such a development.
Only a strong leader can do something like what Prigozhin did (the ex-squadron of the "Wagner" PMC - ed.). And this is not seen yet, - said Budanov.
As Kyrylo Budanov points out, it is necessary to recognize the fact that the authorities of the Russian Federation have learned to systematically adapt their society to these problems.
In addition, it is important to understand that the level of demand in Russian society is much lower than in Ukrainian society.
