According to retired US Army Col. Robert Hamilton, professor of the Military College of the American military, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kurshchyna has already forced the Russian occupiers to transfer part of their forces from the front in western Ukraine.
Points of attention
- The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kurshchyna is forcing Russian occupiers to redistribute forces and resources, posing a significant challenge to the Russian regime.
- The success of Ukraine in Kurshchyna could lead to substantial losses for Russia both on the frontlines and in terms of economic resources.
- Russian military analysts highlight the need for at least 50,000 troops to reclaim lost territories in Kurshchyna, a number currently unattainable for the Russian army.
- The ongoing conflict in Kurshchyna is dynamic, with the resource factor playing a crucial role in determining the course of events in the region.
- Former spokesman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, Vladyslav Seleznyov, emphasizes the limitations of Russian forces in the Kursk region and predicts a potential 'push-pull' scenario in the near future.
How Ukraine makes Russia pay for the unleashed criminal war
Hamilton emphasized that the breakthrough and offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kurshchyna greatly embarrassed the criminal Kremlin leadership, which failed its own narratives that the alleged war against Ukraine does not create any real losses and threats for Russia.
The Kursk Offensive is hurting Putin's regime, but it is unlikely to bring about its downfall. If it is not combined with other significant military defeats and economic difficulties of the Russian Federation, - emphasized the former American soldier.
However, according to him, it is still unlikely that the criminal regime of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin will collapse as a result of further successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kurshchyna.
Borys Kaliskyi, operational director of the Prague Institute for Security Studies, claims that the collapse of the regime is unlikely at the moment.
He recalled that there were similar expectations during the mutiny of the "Wagner" PMC, but everything turned out the other way around.
How many troops will Russia need to return the lost territories in Kurshchyna
According to the military analyst and former spokesman of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Vladyslav Seleznyov, on "Kyiv24", for radical changes in Kurshchyna, the Russian occupiers need a group of at least 50,000 people, which at the moment simply has nowhere to take them.
The situation on the battlefield is very dynamic, on the one hand. On the other hand, the key factor affecting the course of events in the territory of the Kursk region is the resource factor. If the Russian army manages to increase its grouping of troops on the territory of the Kursk region to the level of 50,000, then I think that the situation can fundamentally change. But the Russian army currently has no such resources and nowhere to get them. Except for the options, if the enemy completely abandons his invasion plans regarding the east of Ukraine, - explains Seleznyov.
He noted that fighting is currently quite active in the east of Ukraine, because the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin demanded to take control of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
I do not think that Putin, in order to take control of the entire Kursk region in the shortest possible time, will be ready to give up his aggressive plans for our east. Therefore, I think that in the near future we will see a kind of "push-pull". Because it is obvious that the enemy will not have enough resources to block the expansion of the Ukrainian front, the invasion of the territory of the Kursk region, and accordingly, the Defense Forces of Ukraine have a certain set of forces and means, which are limited to certain limits, beyond which we physically cannot go, - emphasizes Seleznev.
According to him, there are not too many enemy forces and means on the territory of the Kursk region. Seleznev assumes that up to 20,000 personnel may be stationed there in total.
