Despite the fact that many political scientists, sociologists and analysts predict the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections, the British "mega-poll" indicates that the White House will be headed by Kamala Harris.
Points of attention
- The previously mentioned poll indicated Trump's victory, but recently the situation has changed dramatically.
- The MRP model came out of Great Britain, where it had already successfully predicted political outcomes, including the defeat of Theresa May in the parliamentary elections.
Will Harris be able to outrun Trump?
Focaldata, an authoritative polling company based in Great Britain, used its survey technology with a huge sample.
Her results indicate that Kamala Harris currently has more chances to become the new American leader.
According to representatives of Focaldata, 31,000 voters across the US took part in their large-scale survey.
What is also important to understand is that this is an innovative type of survey called MRP.
Combining the results of the MRP poll with the results of its large-scale online poll of swing states, Focaldata estimates that Harris is likely to win Michigan by nearly 5 points, Nevada by about 2 points, and by a narrow margin in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
According to the pollsters, previously their MRP model always showed a Trump victory, but now Harris has pulled ahead.
What is important to know about MRP
As sociologists point out, the MRP is a statistical model that takes a massive nationwide sample.
It then uses demographic data to estimate state-level election results.
The method, which journalists often call "mega-survey", became very popular in Great Britain 7 years ago.
It was then that he correctly predicted that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in parliament at a time when most polls suggested she would win big.
Focaldata has been working on US surveys for several months.
