American analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin chose the Lviv region as the target for the Oreshnik ballistic missile strike in order to intimidate Europe and the United States and make it impossible to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.
Points of attention
- The Oreshnik missile strike in Ukraine is viewed as a warning to the 'Coalition of the Willing' against potential military involvement in the region after the conflict ends.
- The ongoing tit-for-tat missile strikes between Russia and Ukraine indicate escalating tensions and the use of military force as a means of geopolitical maneuvering.
Putin fears that Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees
American analysts point out that the Russian Defense Ministry tried to justify the strike as a response to an alleged attack by Ukrainian drones on the Russian dictator's residence in Valdai on the night of December 29.
However, the CIA later publicly announced that there had been no attack on Putin's residence.
Overall, this indicates that the Oreshnik strike was part of Russia's nuclear rattle.
According to the ISW team, the head of the Kremlin simply tried once again to scare Western countries away from providing military support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in particular, from deploying troops in Ukraine after the end of the war.
The use of a missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge and having a multiple-warhead over the western part of Ukraine was likely aimed at intimidating the "Coalition of the Willing" and deterring the deployment of such troops, American analysts emphasize.
It is also worth noting that the first use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine occurred in November 2024.
Thus, Putin responded to the strikes of Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles on military facilities in the aggressor country.
