After Russia struck the Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile on November 21, analysts are debating whether Putin is capable of launching a nuclear attack on Ukraine or European countries at this point in time.
Points of attention
- Experts are debating whether Putin is capable of launching a nuclear attack on Ukraine or European countries using Iskander or Kh-102 missiles.
- The presence of stationary missile defense systems in Europe reduces the threat to its security from medium-range missiles.
- Putin's attempts to intimidate the West by striking Ukraine with new missiles may not necessarily indicate a real threat of using nuclear weapons.
- Despite the potential for a nuclear attack, Putin's dependence on China and pressure from international partners may deter him from taking such extreme measures.
- Military analysts suggest that Putin's recent missile demonstrations are more about intimidation than a genuine willingness to use nuclear weapons.
Nothing prevents the Russian Federation from launching a nuclear strike — Katkov
Commenting on the Russian attack on the Dnipro, military expert, chief editor of Defense Express Oleg Katkov noted that the Russian Federation may continue such attacks
The Russian Federation may even carry out a nuclear attack. There is nothing that can hold them back. Moreover, such strikes cannot necessarily be inflicted by intercontinental or medium-range missiles. Standard carriers of nuclear charges are Iskander complexes or Kh-102 missiles.
The Russians are trying to intimidate not only Ukraine, but also the whole world. Katkov reminded that since 2022, the Russian side has used Kh-55 missiles with simulators of nuclear warheads. Intelligence means will work and respond to possible threats.
The enemy has many means of delivery, in particular those with which he uses high-explosive warheads, they can be equipped with nuclear charges. In the case of preparations for a nuclear attack, there will be appropriate teams and preparations that will allow partners to record it and warn the Russian Federation about the inevitable consequences of such an attack.
As for the general behavior of the population of Ukraine, the main rule remains prompt response to air warning signals. In the event of a ballistic strike, especially with the use of medium-range missiles, there will be little time for shelter — sometimes less than 10 minutes.
During such attacks, the missile rises into space, reaches a height of more than 100 km, and then the warheads return to the atmosphere and hit the targets. Because of this, the trajectory of such missiles is difficult to predict, and the time to react remains limited.
Given the speed of the missiles (more than 5-6 km/s), the possibility of their interception depends on the availability of modern anti-aircraft weapons that are capable of operating at different stages of flight, says Katkov.
In Europe, there are two stationary anti-missile defense complexes — in Poland and Romania, which are capable of intercepting missiles, including medium-range missiles. Also, partners could transfer mobile systems on wheels to us. There is the THAAD system, which effectively intercepts monoblock warheads of medium-range missiles, operating mainly in the atmosphere and slightly outside it. But the US has only seven batteries of this system.
According to a military expert, it is best to intercept medium-range missiles with separate warheads before they separate, when only one target — the warhead or upper stage of the missile — needs to be hit before it splits into six separate targets.
Putin scares the world with missiles, but he won't dare to use a nuclear weapon — Narozhny
The Russian dictator decided to intimidate the West by striking Ukraine with a new Kedr ballistic missile. However, he will not dare a nuclear strike.
According to military analyst Pavel Narozhny, the Russian strike on Ukraine with a new ballistic missile is an intimidation of Europe and the United States, which are working on means of delivering nuclear ammunition. In this way, Putin shows that he has a new hypersonic missile with a nuclear warhead.
On the other hand, this is how the dictator is trying to force the West to stop supporting Ukraine.
The essence of all dictatorial regimes is quite simple: look, I'm crazy, I have a huge missile and I can hit with this missile. Putin does it, Kim Jong Un does it, absolutely all dictators do it.
At the same time, in his opinion, there is no real threat of using this type of missiles with nuclear warheads. Because an attack on Kyiv, Dnipro or another city of Ukraine, even with a tactical munition, is a nuclear attack on Europe.
And Putin depends on Europe because he sells gas and oil and cannot simply cut ties. And most importantly, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is categorically against the use of nuclear weapons. And Putin is 100% dependent on Comrade Xi. His entire economy is now built around China.
