Will Russia launch a massive attack on Ukraine on New Year's Eve — experts' opinion
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Ukraine
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Will Russia launch a massive attack on Ukraine on New Year's Eve — experts' opinion

missile
Source:  RBC Ukraine

The aggressor country has the resources for new missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. It is possible that this could happen closer to the New Year, or even on New Year's Eve, analysts believe.

Points of attention

  • Experts believe Russia has the resources and political goals to carry out attacks on Ukraine, potentially leading to massive missile and drone strikes on New Year's Day.
  • Russian attacks on Ukraine on previous New Year holidays indicate the need for heightened preparedness against possible new strikes at the national level.
  • Signs of Russian aggression, such as intelligence gathering and movements of aviation, point towards the likelihood of large-scale attacks around New Year's Eve.
  • Amidst threats of missile strikes, experts highlight the importance of monitoring activities at the Kapustin Yar test site and staying vigilant against potential attacks by ballistic missiles like 'Oreshnik'.
  • Ukrainians have faced New Year celebrations under the shadow of war for several years, with recent instances of Russian missile strikes causing casualties and damage to infrastructure.

Is a massive shelling of Ukraine by Russia possible on New Year's Day?

According to Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, after the Russians launched a missile attack on Ukraine on Christmas, they still have reserves for two large-scale attacks. Plus, the enemy continues to accumulate and has help from the DPRK.

I think they are preparing to carry out one (large-scale attack — ed.) closer to New Year's. Or even on New Year's Eve. And the second one will be 7-10 days after New Year's.

Oleksandr Musienko

Oleksandr Musienko

Head of the Center for Military Legal Studies

The expert reminds that the aggressor has not only a military but also a political goal on the eve of the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump. Therefore, according to the expert, the frequency of Russian attacks on Ukraine will be really high.

The enemy will use the maximum. Then the Russians can take a pause and resume strikes in late January or early February. He also named characteristic signs that indicate the enemy's preparation for possible massive shelling.

First, intelligence information. Second, there are signs of aviation. That is, the planes are moving along the line to Engels or vice versa. You can see it by the arrival of the planes that bring in the missiles.

In turn, military expert Vladislav Seleznev also does not rule out the possibility of a large-scale enemy attack, since the Russian Federation has previously resorted to attacks with "Shaheds" and missiles during the New Year holidays.

Of course, we must be ready... But I don't think it's worth getting tied to any dates in the context of assessing the actions of the enemy army. They are acting absolutely rationally. They have reconnoitered targets on the territory of Ukraine — they are using available resources. The fact that they have resources is obvious.

Vladislav Seleznyov

Vladislav Seleznyov

Military expert

He recalled that as of November this year, the Russian army had accumulated 1,500 missiles.

Rocket

Is the threat of a new strike by "Oreshnik" real?

From time to time, an air alert is declared throughout Ukraine due to the threat of a strike by the "Oreshnik" — a ballistic missile that the aggressor first used against Ukraine on November 21, targeting the Dnieper River.

Expert Musienko notes that the deployment of such a complex is noticeable. Therefore, the Kapustin Yar test site in the Astrakhan region is under constant surveillance. In particular, it is conducted by Ukrainian partners.

As soon as there is some activity there, an air alert is immediately declared to warn of possible challenges. But recently these have actually been demonstrative actions by Russia. That is, they showed that they were preparing for an attack, they made simulated launches, but there were no real launches.

In addition, according to the expert, there is currently no information that a significant number of Oreshnik missiles are concentrated in the territory of Kapustyny Yar.

If they are there, they are actually in isolated instances. Therefore, such air alert announcements are simply steps forward, a warning due to the fact that activity there is being monitored and a corresponding signal is being issued.

Instead, expert Seleznev shares that for him, the key marker of whether there is a real threat of an attack by "Oreshnik" is the actions of the US Embassy in Ukraine.

Only if it announces, as last time, when the Russian Federation hit the Dnieper with the "Oreshnik", about the temporary closure of the institution — then there is a reason to really worry. And the Russians are conducting appropriate training. This is a marker of psychological influence.

He gave an example of how previously a large-scale air alert was declared in Ukraine every time a Russian MiG-31K, which is a carrier of Kinzhal missiles, took off.

And accordingly, life in Ukraine came to a standstill, because everyone was sitting in shelters. However, the technical resource of aircraft is not unlimited. Accordingly, the enemy began to use these flights less often to drive our country into a stupor. But they found another option. They are making certain movements and preparations in the territory of Kapustyny Yar, which do not require serious costs.

In addition, he reminded that Moscow must warn Washington in cases where it launches intermediate-range ballistic missiles. And here's why.

(This is done so that there is no "unpleasant surprise" when Washington, perceiving such missile launches as an immediate threat to its own national security, can repel them with all its available nuclear potential on the territory of the Russian Federation. Therefore, there is a certain algorithm of notifications between the Russian Federation and the United States regarding such actions and preparations for them.

Kyiv after the Russian missile strike

Russian attacks on Ukraine on New Year's Eve in 2022-2023

For the third year in a row, Ukrainians will celebrate the New Year in conditions of full-scale war. And the Russians' love for "sacred dates" has clearly been evident during this period.

Thus, on December 31, 2022, on New Year's Eve, the Russian military launched a massive missile strike, mainly on residential and civilian buildings in Ukraine.

Kyiv was under attack, as well as: Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. In the capital alone, dozens of people were injured, one person died. After that, on New Year's Eve, the enemy fired dozens of "Shaheeds" across Ukraine, causing damage to infrastructure.

The end of 2023 was also marked by the sound of sirens for Ukrainians. Then, on December 29, the occupiers used 158 air targets (87 missiles and 27 drones). As a result of the shelling, 39 people were killed and another 159 were injured.

And on the night of December 31, 2023 to January 1, 2024, the Russians launched 90 "Shaheeds" and eight missiles at Ukrainian cities. The "Shaheeds" hit the west and south of Ukraine. In particular, in Odessa, an enemy attack took the life of a teenager, and in Lviv, the Roman Shukhevych museum burned down and a fire broke out at the university where Stepan Bandera studied.

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