According to aviation expert Kostyantyn Kryvolap, Ukraine should be calm about the threat of massive missile attacks by the Russian Federation in response to the offensive of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region.
Points of attention
- Russian Federation's technical limitations and strategic priorities make massive missile attacks on Ukraine unlikely.
- The analyst emphasizes that Russia has other priorities and equipment limitations that restrict their ability to launch large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine.
- Despite possessing missiles like Iskanders and KN-23s, the Russian Federation faces challenges in executing massive missile strikes due to equipment constraints.
- The expert highlights the limited number of Tu-95 bombers equipped with missiles in the Russian army, further diminishing the possibility of massive missile attacks.
- While theoretical scenarios exist, realistic assessments suggest that the Russian occupiers lack the capacity to carry out extensive missile strikes on Ukraine.
- Ukraine should not be overly concerned about threats from the Russian Federation regarding massive missile attacks, as the analyst provides insights into the practical limitations faced by the aggressor country.
Why Ukraine should not be afraid of the threats of the Russian Federation regarding massive missile attacks
Can there be a hundred Shaheds? Only theoretically, if you look at how many they can launch... since they built the plant in Elabuz and reached a more or less stable mode, they cannot physically send more than 500-550 Shaheds in a month. Moreover, the Israelis attacked the Iranian plant, and they are having problems there now, Kryvolap notes.
The expert emphasized that the aggressor country currently has 12-13 Tu-95s equipped with missiles, on which no more than 26 enemy missiles can be installed.
How realistically can the Russian occupiers strike Ukraine
If they want to be without the Tu-95, they will attach 3-4 missiles to them. After all, the power scheme there is such that this rocket simply breaks the wings. Then there is the Tu-22. there are a total of 27 of them left, but we discard 30%, and there will be about 18 machines that are theoretically capable of lifting the Kh-22 missile... I do not remember a single case when they could equip more than two such missiles, - explains the analyst .
He also noted that if the Russian Federation aims to really hit some object, then for this they use "Iskanders", since it is a fairly accurate weapon.
If they want to launch a terrorist attack, they hit the KN-23, in North Korean. How much can it be? It was said that there were about 46 complexes around the northern border in winter. Is it possible? Perhaps. Now anything can happen. Yes, if there were hundreds - this will not happen... But if they do, then there will be nothing to scare. Therefore, I am not entirely sure that they will do something like that, they need to deal with other issues, - emphasized Kryvolap.
