Journalists of the analytical edition of Foreign Policy warn that in the event of a weakening of support from Western partners, Russia may occupy a significant part of the territory of Ukraine, which will turn out to be catastrophic in terms of consequences, both for the Kremlin and for the EU countries.
Points of attention
- The defeat of Ukraine in the war with Russia will bring serious negative consequences for Russia, which will find itself under the burden of high military costs and losses due to the criminal occupation of Ukrainian territories.
- The occupation of Ukraine may lead to mass migration of Ukrainians to EU countries, which will be a serious test for European countries.
- Disruption of world order and European security are the main consequences of Russia's victory in Ukraine, which can lead to deep destabilization.
- The indecisiveness of the Western partners may lead to the occupation of Ukraine by Russia and the return of the puppet government regime.
- Putin is waging a war both to subjugate Ukraine and to restore the "balance of the world order."
Why the occupation of Ukraine will be a disaster for Russia
Analysts of the publication note that it is the indecision of Western partners that can lead to such a scenario when Russia occupies a large part of Ukraine and returns its puppet regime.
In the future, as the authors of the material emphasize, this will also be a step towards disaster in Russia itself.
The repressive empire would struggle to digest its occupied lands, subdue a restive population, and bear the burden of very high military expenditures in a new era of confrontation. Moscow would trade its medieval Mongol yoke for a 21st-century Chinese one—and be seriously left behind as the rest of the world enters a new green and digital age. Sooner or later, Russia would face its third state collapse in little more than a century, — the publication emphasizes.
What consequences will the EU expect in the event of Ukraine's defeat in the war
Analysts warn that the defeat of Ukraine in the criminal war unleashed by Russia will also have grave consequences for EU countries.
In particular, the authors of the material predict that in the event of such an adverse scenario, tens of millions of new Ukrainian refugees will flee to EU countries.
If a similar ratio applies to further Russian conquests, it would be realistic to count on 10 million to 15 million refugees, in addition to the slightly more than 4 million Europe is hosting already, flowing into nearby European states, the authors of the material warn.
It is also noted that a Russian victory would change European politics in several aspects. In particular, the Ukrainian government in exile would operate from Warsaw or elsewhere in Central Europe.
Defense expenditures—set to reach 4 percent of GDP in Poland this year and at least 2 percent across much of NATO—will need to double yet again in order to credibly deter threats from an increasingly desperate Russian regime, the authors of the article note.
In their opinion, Putin is waging his war both to subjugate Ukraine and to restore "the balance of the world order."
The consequences of letting Russia win in Ukraine would be catastrophic for the Ukrainians, extremely serious for the security of Europe, and profoundly destabilizing for the rest of the world. In the end, it would probably lead to a collapse of Russia itself—which would present Europe with a whole other set of consequences to prepare for, the authors of the publication warn.
