The Russian Federation announced its readiness to supply more weapons to the regime of Bashar al-Assad. However, analysts doubt the Kremlin's ability to increase military support for the Syrian army.
Points of attention
- Putin will not be able to increase military support for Assad because of the war against Ukraine, which is "a priority for Moscow."
- The Russian Federation exported a number of military resources from Syria for use in the war on the territory of Ukraine.
- The rebels liberated the city of Aleppo from the influence of the Assad regime, showing its vulnerability and inability to defend itself.
- The reaction of the local residents of Aleppo to the liberation of the city by the rebels shows whether they support or ignore the dictatorial regime of Assad.
- Official statements and telephone conversations between the Russian Federation, Iran and Turkey testify to attempts to stabilize the situation within the framework of the Syrian peace process.
Why Russia will not be able to provide Assad with more weapons and soldiers
According to ISW analysts, on November 29, the press secretary of the Kremlin Dmytro Peskov stated that the actions of the Syrian opposition forces are a threat to the sovereignty of Syria, and Russia supports the aspirations of the Syrian authorities to restore "constitutional order" in the country.
The next day, November 30, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov had a telephone conversation with his Turkish colleague Hakan Fidan.
They expressed serious concern about the situation in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, calling it dangerous. The ministers agreed to coordinate efforts to stabilize the situation within the framework of the Syrian peace process launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in December 2016.
On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi also held a telephone conversation with Lavrov, discussing developments in Syria.
ISW analysts emphasize that due to the war against Ukraine, which remains a top priority for Moscow, Russia is unlikely to be able to increase military support for Syria.
It is unclear whether the Kremlin is capable of mobilizing additional resources to support the Bashar al-Assad regime, given the high strain on Russian forces due to operations in Ukraine, which is a key focus for the Kremlin, the report noted.
In 2022, Russia removed S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems from Syria for use in the war against Ukraine. In the same year, Russian troops and fighters of the "Wagner" PMK were also withdrawn from the country.
What is happening in Syria
On November 30, it became officially known that the Syrian armed opposition liberated Aleppo, one of the country's largest cities. What is important to understand is that Aleppo is the second most populous city in the country, which is also a millionaire.
It passed into the hands of the Syrian armed opposition already three days after the start of the offensive operation.
In just two days, the insurgents were able to overcome about 25 km of territory with a front width of 20 km and reach the western outskirts of Aleppo.
On November 29, groups of insurgents who entered the districts of the central part of the city after lunch reported that they had taken complete control. There was no resistance.
The dictatorial regime of Bashar al-Assad, which is an ally of Vladimir Putin, was not ready for such a development, so it was forced to flee. Assad's troops retreated to the city of al-Safira, which is south of the provincial capital.
A remarkable moment of taking control of Aleppo by the rebels was the reaction of local residents. The joy or calm attitude and lack of panic reaction against the background of significant military movements shows that the townspeople perceive the rebels at least neutrally, if not as liberators.
