According to leading Western analysts, former US President Donald Trump, in case of re-election to the post of the head of the White House, may announce the termination of military aid to Ukraine.
What is known about Trump's intentions to end military aid to Ukraine
According to Elisabeth Hoffman, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Benjamin Tallis, a senior researcher at the Alfred von Oppenheim Center for the Future of Europe at the German Council on International Relations, the negative thing for Ukraine is that domestic politics in the US always prevails over foreign policy.
About 80% of Americans are concerned about problems on the border with Mexico. Congressmen who want to be re-elected are forced to count. Otherwise, voters may say: We are suffering at home, so why are we sending money abroad? Congressmen need a certain political cover, the analyst notes.
Elizabeth Hoffman emphasized that the nomination of Trump to participate in the presidential elections in the USA can shift the discussion of aid to Ukraine in an undesirable direction.
He promises to end the war in 24 hours. It is not clear to me what he would do if he became president. I do not see a scenario in which the US would withdraw from NATO. But with regard to Ukraine, yes, there is a risk of being abandoned under Trump, Hoffmann said.
What is known about Europe's willingness to compensate for the reduction in aid to Ukraine from the US
For his part, Benjamin Tallis draws attention to the promises of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to increase the amount of military aid to Ukraine in the event of a reduction in similar supplies from the US. However, it is not currently known what plan Berlin has for this.
Europe has underinvested in its armed forces for decades. Germany was the first among those countries that did it. And now it has its own budget crisis. The victory of the isolationist Trump may, on the contrary, lead to a counter-reaction in Europe. It can reduce aid and accumulate resources, because it will feel threatened by Russia directly, and not through Ukraine or a hybrid confrontation, and this will be a wrong decision for Europe, it would be much cheaper to defeat Russia in Ukraine, the expert explains.
In his opinion, Trump's likely victory in the presidential elections in the United States will once again raise questions about Washington's commitment to Article 5 of the NATO treaty on collective defence.
Trump is not the kind of partner you want amid a major war. But if we were to prepare, we would see that Germany is really rearming, and not pretending to do so. And we saw discussions about extended nuclear deterrence, which are not there now. A Biden victory is also an underestimated danger. There are risks that the main attention of the US will be concentrated on the Indo-Pacific region - without increasing support for Ukraine. But Biden's victory will deprive Russia of the time factor. And it can change the game: Now Putin is counting on the victory of the Republicans and says: Why should I make some kind of deal with the Biden administration, when I can make it with Trump? the analyst says.
