G7 and EU discuss the use Russia's frozen assets as a bail for financial recovery of Ukraine
Category
Economics
Publication date

G7 and EU discuss the use Russia's frozen assets as a bail for financial recovery of Ukraine

Money
Source:  Bloomberg

The G7 countries and the European Union are discussing a plan to use more than $250 billion of frozen Russian assets as collateral to help finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.

How can frozen assets of the Russian Federation be used

Under the discussed proposal, Ukraine's allies could issue debt obligations to help finance Ukraine's reconstruction, using frozen Russian assets as collateral to repay the debt.

Proponents of the plan believe that any settlement of the conflict under international law would require Russia to pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.

According to the interlocutors, if Russia refuses to do this, then claims may be made for the frozen assets of the Russian Federation.

Currently, the plan is being discussed at a technical level. In other words, a political decision on this issue has not yet been made.

At the same time, one of Bloomberg's interlocutors noted that some countries want to move on this issue "faster than others."

Earlier, the G7 countries promised to make Russia pay for the restoration of Ukraine and freeze its assets until it does so itself.

What is known about the Russian assets withdrawal for the benefit of Ukraine

At the end of April 2022, the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved a bill that provides for the confiscation of frozen assets of Russian-sanctioned legal entities and individuals. The withdrawn funds are proposed to provide Ukraine with additional military and humanitarian aid.

In November 2022, the EU froze 68 billion euros of Russian assets, according to an internal European Commission document. There they want to direct some of the frozen assets of the Bank of the Russian Federation to the restoration of Ukraine.

In July 2023, European Union leaders backed plans to impose a windfall tax on more than €200 billion in frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank to help rebuild Ukraine.

At the end of December 2023, the United States proposed to the Group of Seven (G7) a plan to confiscate $300 billion in Russian assets.

Category
Economics
Publication date

JP Morgan assessed the risk of global recession due to Trump's tariffs

What JP Morgan warns about
Source:  Reuters

The team at investment bank JP Morgan has raised its estimate of the probability of a global recession from 40% to 60% in 2025 amid the announcement of trade tariffs imposed by US leader Donald Trump.

Points of attention

  • The team at JP Morgan has raised the estimate of a global recession probability from 40% to 60% in 2025 due to the trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
  • JP Morgan's strategists highlight the negative impact of tax hikes, deteriorating business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions on the economy.
  • Barclays and Deutsche Bank teams have also issued warnings about the American economy potentially sliding into recession if Trump's tariffs are not removed.
  • JP Morgan's analytical note emphasizes that disruptive policies of the Trump administration pose the biggest risk to the global outlook, with the White House becoming less business-friendly.
  • The impact of tax increases is expected to be amplified by countermeasures, deteriorating business sentiment in the US, and supply chain disruptions.

What JP Morgan warns about

Representatives of the bank published an analytical note prepared by a team of strategists led by Bruce Kasman.

It says that the disruptive policies of the Donald Trump administration are recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook throughout the year.

In addition, it is noted that the White House's approach has become less business-friendly than previously predicted.

The impact of this tax increase is likely to be amplified by countermeasures, deteriorating business sentiment in the US, and supply chain disruptions, Bruce Kasman emphasized.

What is important to understand is that identical warnings were also issued by Barclays and Deutsche Bank teams.

According to them, the American economy could quickly slide into recession if Trump's tariffs remain in place.

Recall that official Beijing has been imposing 34 percent tariffs on all imports from the United States since April 10.

Category
Politics
Publication date

Time will work for Ukraine. Putin may incur Trump's wrath

Putin can outdo himself

The Wall Street Journal points out that US President Donald Trump's plans to end Russia's war against Ukraine as quickly as possible have proven unrealistic. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky's team is now waiting for the White House leader to lose patience with dictator Vladimir Putin's antics.

Points of attention

  • Former US Ambassador Daniel Fried highlights that time will work in Ukraine's favor if Trump persists in seeking a quick deal while Putin remains an obstacle.
  • The outcome of the conflict hinges on Trump's response if he feels deceived by Putin's maneuvers, potentially escalating tensions between the US and Russia.

Putin can outdo himself

As the editorial board notes, Ukraine's main goal at the moment is to exit the war without capitulating to Russia and at the same time without giving up its economic independence to the United States by signing an agreement on subsoil resources.

As for Putin, he has not given up on his plans: the Kremlin wants to dominate Ukraine at all costs and prevent its integration with the West.

Against this background, official Moscow is doing everything possible to drag out negotiations with the US. Recently, Russia has even begun to claim that it will not accept the US proposal for a ceasefire, since, they say, the "root causes" of the war are not being addressed.

The current situation was commented on by former US Ambassador to Poland and Atlantic Council fellow Daniel Fried.

According to the latter, Zelensky's team is currently in a more advantageous position, as it is not dictating conditions to Trump and is simply waiting for the US president to lose patience with Putin's antics.

"Time will work in Ukraine's favor if Trump continues to push for a quick deal, and Putin (Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, — ed.) will be an obstacle. If Trump decides he has been fooled, he may react badly," the diplomat stressed.

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