The Russians took advantage of a critical shortage of air defense missiles in a devastating campaign of energy infrastructure strikes in 2024.
Points of attention
- Ukraine is faced with the problem of insufficient air defence equipment to cover repaired energy facilities.
- The lack of anti-aircraft missiles makes it difficult to protect critical infrastructure from Russian strikes.
- Russia has a significant advantage in the number of missiles for attack compared to Ukrainian air defence resources.
- The lack of interceptor missiles makes it impossible to cover power system objects from Russian strikes.
- A serious electricity shortage in Ukraine is forecast, which may reach up to 35%, leading to a regime with blackouts for several hours a day.
Ukraine lacks air defence to cover the repaired energy facilities
Ukraine cannot cover power system facilities that it has already repaired but is still repairing because there are not enough anti-aircraft missiles.
Dmytro Sakharuk, the executive director of DTEK, stated This in an interview with the Kyiv Post. According to him, the lack of critical air defence missiles hinders the ability to protect Ukraine's critical infrastructure from Russian strikes.
Sakharuk noted that for every interceptor missile that Ukraine has to protect against Russian strikes on the energy system, Russia has five to six missiles to launch over Ukraine. If Russia launches ten missiles at any target in Ukraine, Ukrainian forces will need to respond with at least 12 air defence missiles.
The sharp difference between the required and actual ratio of Ukrainian air defence assets and Russian attacking missiles means that the lack of interceptor missiles makes it impossible to cover power system facilities that Ukraine has already repaired or is repairing.
At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Russian strikes have caused severe restrictions on Ukraine's power generation capacity. The occupiers took advantage of the vulnerability of Ukrainian air defense during strikes on the power system during this year.
The situation in the power system
Earlier, Serhiy Kovalenko reported that this winter, Ukraine's electricity deficit could be up to 35%. Therefore, Ukrainians should prepare that there may be only six to seven hours of light daily.
According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, Ukrainians will live with power outages for at least the next two winters. At present, the state of the energy system can be assessed with 3 out of 12 points.
