The Kalshi bookmaking platform has officially been able to accept bets from US citizens on the victory of the Republican Donald Trump or the representative of the Democrats Kamala Harris in the presidential elections.
Points of attention
- US residents are betting sizable amounts on the potential victory of either Trump or Harris in the presidential election, with bets exceeding 100 million dollars in a short period.
- Forecasts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket differ regarding the probable victory of Trump or Harris, unveiling various eventuality scenarios.
- For Trump, there are suspicions and predictions of attempts to seize power even if he loses the election, utilizing political connections and strategic maneuvers.
- The potential scenarios for Trump to stay in power involve sowing distrust in the election results, lawsuits to change voting outcomes, and seeking support from allies in GOP-controlled legislatures.
- Despite the potential challenges, Trump is expected to declare himself the winner on election night, sparking uncertainty and potential post-election turmoil.
What is known about Americans' bets on the victory of Trump or Harris
In the material of the Taipei Times, it is noted that during the first few days after the official permission, the total amount of bets made exceeded 100 million dollars.
It is emphasized that the structure of rates is similar to binary options, which work on the principle of "all or nothing" with a cost of 1 dollar per contract.
Kalshi is currently priced higher on Trump than Harris, at 54 cents a contract versus 47 cents.
On the offshore platform Polymarket, which collected more than $1.9 billion in cryptocurrency bets, the chances of Trump and Harris winning are estimated at 56% and 43%, respectively.
Trump is suspected of trying to seize power
According to Politico journalists, Republican Donald Trump plans to become the president of the United States for the second time even if he loses the election.
Dozens of interviews with people involved in the election process indicate that not only can Trump make a second attempt to overturn the election, which he will lose, he and his allies are already laying the groundwork for it, the publication said.
According to the publication, Trump seeks to obtain the powers and immunity from prosecution that the American president receives.
If defeated in the election, a Republican can expect a large number of lawsuits and criminal cases that will last for the rest of his life.
The article emphasizes that currently no one knows for sure what Trump's plans are for influencing the electoral system this year, but the newspaper's analysts, citing lawmakers, congressional investigators, party figures and constitutional law experts, have predicted a potential scenario for Trump to seize power.
Trump's team is expected to try to sow distrust in the election results through unsubstantiated or exaggerated claims of widespread fraud, as well as through lawsuits aimed at changing the voting results in key states.
Trump will rely on allies and partners in the electoral districts, forcing them to resist the confirmation of the election results.
He will call on allies in GOP-controlled legislatures in swing states to appoint "alternative" presidential electors.
Trump expects that Republicans in Congress will support these alternative voters, or at least block the nominations of Democratic voters.
He will also seek to strip opponent Kamala Harris of 270 Electoral College votes, sending the election to the House of Representatives, where Republicans are likely to have enough votes.
Yes, he has already embarked on a clear mission to stir up as much uncertainty as possible about the outcome of the election, arguing that the only way Harris can lose is if the Democrats "cheat."
Trump and his allies may not make a sustained effort to reverse their election defeat. A landslide victory for Harris will make it difficult for Trump to rally Republicans to his side. But election observers and some of Trump's allies agree on one thing: on election night, regardless of what the results show, how many votes remain uncounted and how many advisers tell him the opposite, Donald Trump will declare himself the winner, the authors of the material believe.
