US residents were allowed to bet on the winner of the presidential election
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Economics
Publication date

US residents were allowed to bet on the winner of the presidential election

US presidential elections
Source:  online.ua

The Kalshi bookmaking platform has officially been able to accept bets from US citizens on the victory of the Republican Donald Trump or the representative of the Democrats Kamala Harris in the presidential elections.

Points of attention

  • US residents are betting sizable amounts on the potential victory of either Trump or Harris in the presidential election, with bets exceeding 100 million dollars in a short period.
  • Forecasts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket differ regarding the probable victory of Trump or Harris, unveiling various eventuality scenarios.
  • For Trump, there are suspicions and predictions of attempts to seize power even if he loses the election, utilizing political connections and strategic maneuvers.
  • The potential scenarios for Trump to stay in power involve sowing distrust in the election results, lawsuits to change voting outcomes, and seeking support from allies in GOP-controlled legislatures.
  • Despite the potential challenges, Trump is expected to declare himself the winner on election night, sparking uncertainty and potential post-election turmoil.

What is known about Americans' bets on the victory of Trump or Harris

In the material of the Taipei Times, it is noted that during the first few days after the official permission, the total amount of bets made exceeded 100 million dollars.

It is emphasized that the structure of rates is similar to binary options, which work on the principle of "all or nothing" with a cost of 1 dollar per contract.

Americans are betting crazy money on the victory of Trump or Harris in the presidential elections
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Kalshi is currently priced higher on Trump than Harris, at 54 cents a contract versus 47 cents.

On the offshore platform Polymarket, which collected more than $1.9 billion in cryptocurrency bets, the chances of Trump and Harris winning are estimated at 56% and 43%, respectively.

Trump is suspected of trying to seize power

According to Politico journalists, Republican Donald Trump plans to become the president of the United States for the second time even if he loses the election.

Dozens of interviews with people involved in the election process indicate that not only can Trump make a second attempt to overturn the election, which he will lose, he and his allies are already laying the groundwork for it, the publication said.

According to the publication, Trump seeks to obtain the powers and immunity from prosecution that the American president receives.

If defeated in the election, a Republican can expect a large number of lawsuits and criminal cases that will last for the rest of his life.

The article emphasizes that currently no one knows for sure what Trump's plans are for influencing the electoral system this year, but the newspaper's analysts, citing lawmakers, congressional investigators, party figures and constitutional law experts, have predicted a potential scenario for Trump to seize power.

  • Trump's team is expected to try to sow distrust in the election results through unsubstantiated or exaggerated claims of widespread fraud, as well as through lawsuits aimed at changing the voting results in key states.

  • Trump will rely on allies and partners in the electoral districts, forcing them to resist the confirmation of the election results.

  • He will call on allies in GOP-controlled legislatures in swing states to appoint "alternative" presidential electors.

  • Trump expects that Republicans in Congress will support these alternative voters, or at least block the nominations of Democratic voters.

He will also seek to strip opponent Kamala Harris of 270 Electoral College votes, sending the election to the House of Representatives, where Republicans are likely to have enough votes.

Yes, he has already embarked on a clear mission to stir up as much uncertainty as possible about the outcome of the election, arguing that the only way Harris can lose is if the Democrats "cheat."

Trump and his allies may not make a sustained effort to reverse their election defeat. A landslide victory for Harris will make it difficult for Trump to rally Republicans to his side. But election observers and some of Trump's allies agree on one thing: on election night, regardless of what the results show, how many votes remain uncounted and how many advisers tell him the opposite, Donald Trump will declare himself the winner, the authors of the material believe.

Category
Economics
Publication date

The European Union has dealt a powerful sanction blow to Russia

New EU sanctions against Russia — first details
Source:  Financial Times

On February 19, members of the European Union agreed on a new package of sanctions against the aggressor country Russia. According to the latest data, they target aluminum, oil, as well as the enemy's banking sector.

Points of attention

  • The package is supported by ambassadors from all 27 EU countries and aims to deter support for Russia's war against Ukraine.
  • According to sources, the final approval for the new sanctions against Russia is expected next week.

New EU sanctions against Russia — first details

What is important to understand is that this is the 16th package of sanctions imposed by official Brussels since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

This time, the Russian aluminum industry will come under attack from the European Union. In addition, restrictions on oil exports will be tightened.

The sanctions list includes 13 new banks, 73 tankers of the so-called "shadow fleet" that Russia uses to export oil, and a gradual ban on EU countries purchasing certain types of Russian aluminum products, according to sources familiar with the contents of the package.

According to journalists, the new package was supported by ambassadors from all 27 countries of the bloc.

It also imposes sanctions on additional individuals and entities that help Russia wage war against Ukraine.

According to Vladislav Vlasyuk, the presidential commissioner for sanctions policy, new sanctions against Russia will be "finally approved" next week.

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