According to analysts, the most effective for Ukraine in the war may be attempts to return Crimea occupied by Russia.
Points of attention
- Ukraine is actively preparing for strikes on Crimea using the F-16.
- The return of Russian-occupied Crimea is becoming a central goal for Ukraine in the war, which could lead to the humiliation of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin.
- The destruction of the Crimean bridge and air defense systems in Crimea can be an important victory for Ukraine and affect the further development of the conflict.
- The deployment of S-500 air defence systems in Crimea increases tensions in the region and gives Ukraine the opportunity to use strategic aspects of control over the peninsula in negotiations.
- Ukrainian attacks on the Russian army in Crimea demonstrate a successful strategy of training and cooperation with Western allies in intelligence and combat operations.
How Ukraine is preparing to strike Crimea with F-16
The publication notes that even at the beginning of this year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made it clear that the battle for Crimea occupied by Russia will be central to the criminal war unleashed by the Kremlin.
The authors of the article note that Ukraine's success in the fight for Crimea would be a powerful blow to Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin.
Russia's defeat in Crimea would not be just a defeat, but a humiliation, says Olha Khvostunova, an employee of the Eurasian Program of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies.
Over the past few weeks, the Ukrainian military has carried out a series of successful attacks on the facilities of the Russian army in the Russian-occupied Crimea.
In particular, several batteries of Russian S-300 and S-400 air defence systems were destroyed.
Belbek airfield near Sevastopol was also attacked.
According to Elina Beketova, an expert on democracy at the Center for the Analysis of European Politics, the Ukrainian military's strikes were successful thanks to thorough preparation and systematic work, as well as the help of Western allies in satellite and aerial reconnaissance.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military successfully destroys the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
Maria Snehova, a senior researcher at the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasizes that Crimea "is the key to Russia's access to the Black Sea and operations."
Crimea allows us to direct power to the rest of the Black Sea. Accordingly, containment of Russian naval positions in Crimea is critically important for Ukraine, the analyst emphasizes.
The authors of the article add that the destruction of the Crimean Bridge can become a very important symbolic victory for Ukraine and a real blow to Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin.
According to analysts, the destruction of the bridge is "inevitable", and even the Russians understand it.
Frederick Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, believes that by attacking air defence in Crimea, Ukraine is "preparing the ground" for future F-16 strikes.
Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited room for maneuver on the peninsula...Putin has a lot to lose, both politically and militarily. So if a limited number of fighters can make a real impact, then it is here — and over the Black Sea, which becomes fully accessible after the air defenсe in Crimea is dismantled, — the analyst emphasises.
As you know, Russia has relocated its state-of-the-art S-500 air defence system to the peninsula to protect the region from aircraft.
Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea. This gives Ukraine the opportunity to use the threatening status of Crimea as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, — Maria Snehova notes.
At the same time, Beketova is convinced that if Ukraine can regain control over the Black Sea, return the peninsula, or simply exert enough pressure on these territories to threaten Putin, "this will mean the end of the war."
What is known about the S-500 systems deployed by Russia in Crimea
The occupation army of the Russian Federation has deployed advanced S-500 Prometheus air defence systems in Crimea.
According to Newsweek, it is currently unclear which parts of the S-500 air defense system Russia has transferred to the occupied peninsula.
The authors of the material note that it also remains unknown how many S-500 systems Russia has in service.
Currently, Russia has at its disposal one active S-500 regiment, which usually involves the presence of two battalions with two anti-aircraft batteries in each, that is, a total of four of them, — explains Siddharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
The first S-500s were deployed in the vicinity of Moscow in the fall of 2021.
The first S-500s were deployed in the vicinity of Moscow in the fall of 2021. However, Ukraine's constant strikes against Russia's ground-based air defense systems in Crimea, in particular the S-400, have forced Moscow to move weapons to protect its bases and infrastructure, and "further strikes by Ukraine against such air defense facilities may render the peninsula unsuitable for the deployment of Russian troops, — representatives of the American analytical center Institute for the Study of War note.
According to Paul van Hooft, a strategic analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, deploying parts of the S-500 could be an interim solution to the problem of losing the S-300 and S-400, filling gaps in capability and allowing Russia to test parts of the S-500 without losing an entire battery.
