Oleksandr Musienko, a military expert and director of the Center for Military and Legal Research, emphasized that the probable offensive of the criminal army of the Russian Federation in the summer of this year would not be the worst scenario for Ukraine.
Russia risks a large-scale offensive in Ukraine this summer
Musiyenko emphasized that the worst scenario for Ukraine would be for the Russian occupiers to accumulate all their forces for an offensive in the fall.
To some extent, the fact that the Russian troops are now going all-in and at such a significant risk is not the worst scenario for us. The worst thing for us would be if they started to accumulate all these forces for the fall. They took a break now and prepared more thoroughly, — explains the analyst.
He noted that the Russian criminal army wants to wait until autumn for the full staffing of the two new armies, which were mentioned by the head of the Ministry of Defense of the aggressor country Serhiy Shoigu.
Musienko emphasized that we are talking about a contingent of 250-300 thousand.
He added that it is highly unlikely that the Russian occupiers will have time to complete these armies by June 1.
They need time until October approximately. Then they would really plan some other actions, but they are in a hurry. Because they think that Ukraine will not have support, the analyst said.
What is known about the risks on the battlefield
Musienko noted that the Russian occupiers are currently trying to break through the defense of the Armed Forces on two areas of the front.
He warned about the growing threat to Ugledar.
There are positions that could no longer be held at all. If we take the Avdiyiv direction, it was not possible to realize this, because the enemy had the prevailing heights and it was difficult to hold there. Therefore, they moved a little further and now the advance of Russian troops is being stopped, the analyst emphasizes.
However, Musienko recognizes the tactical successes of the enemy in certain areas of the front.
In some directions, the enemy has tactical successes. This is true, we see it in the Bakhmut direction, where they are trying to get to Chasiv Yar, they are also trying to break through in the Lyman direction, but they are being held back quite strongly there, the expert emphasized.
He also drew attention to the fact that currently almost no one is talking about the threat to Ugledar.
There, the enemy is trying to develop a movement in the direction of Kurakhove. But it may happen that they will want to attack from the northern flank and try to squeeze our positions there. Because Vugledar is located in such a way that the territories are occupied from the south, and also from the east, and now they are trying to go around Kurakhove from the north as well, — explains the analyst.
According to his estimates, the Russian invaders, despite their numerous superiority, are unable to break through the line of defense of the Ukrainian military.
The analyst also dispelled the fake that allegedly all Ukrainian air defense assets are currently concentrated around Kyiv.
He drew attention to the fact that recently the number of strikes by enemy anti-aircraft missiles has somewhat decreased, although Ukraine does not see many reports of the downing of Russian aircraft either.
This is a tip for those who very often like to say that all air defense is in Kyiv and covers only the capital. In fact, it is not. Air defense means also cover the entire front line, which we have, — emphasized Musienko.
He also emphasized that the partners have finally started providing support to Ukraine in the form of artillery ammunition.
According to him, it was because of Russia that it began to actively spread fakes about the alleged preparation for the attack on Kharkiv.
Why, when Ukraine receives reinforcements somewhere, Russia includes propaganda that it will go to Kharkiv, they start shelling Sumy Oblast? That is, they shift the focus of attention. It is critical for Russia now to disrupt the rotations that may occur so that all our forces are deployed in the northeast, the analyst explains.
