South Korea may increase support for Ukraine through North Korean troops in Russia
Category
Ukraine
Publication date

South Korea may increase support for Ukraine through North Korean troops in Russia

South Korea may increase support for Ukraine through North Korean troops in Russia
Source:  ISW

South Korea's support for Ukraine may increase due to the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. In particular, we are talking about sending weapons.

Points of attention

  • The presence of North Korean troops in Russia poses a serious threat to Ukraine, which forces South Korea to act more actively.
  • South Korea is considering sending weapons to Ukraine in connection with North Korea's actions in Russia.
  • Analysts note that the disclosure by Ukrainian intelligence of the location of North Korean troops near the border with Russia prompted South Korea to consider various scenarios of interaction.
  • South Korea is ready to supply Ukraine with offensive weapons in the event of continued cooperation between the DPRK and Russia.
  • In case of further cooperation between the DPRK and Russia, South Korea intends to turn to international partners to take effective measures.

South Korea is considering "all possible scenarios" in response to North Korea's actions in Russia

As analysts note, South Korea hinted at the possibility of increasing support for Ukraine after reports from Ukrainian intelligence about the deployment of North Korean troops near Russia's border with Ukraine.

Analysts refer to a statement by South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, who said on November 1 that the country is considering "all possible scenarios", including the possibility of sending weapons to Ukraine, in response to North Korea's actions in Russia.

Cho also noted that South Korea will closely monitor North Korea's military activity in the Russian Federation and the benefits Pyongyang receives from Moscow to determine further actions.

On November 2, the Ukrainian General Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reported that last week Russia transferred 7,000 North Korean troops to areas near the Ukrainian border.

According to intelligence, these forces are armed with 60mm mortars, AK-12 assault rifles, RPK/PKM machine guns, SVD/NVCH sniper rifles, Fenix and RPG-7 anti-tank missiles. In addition, the troops are equipped with night vision devices, thermal imagers and other optical equipment.

South Korea can supply offensive weapons to Ukraine

This was stated by Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hye after a briefing called by National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik, where the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia was discussed.

The President's National Security Council met after the National Intelligence Service reported that North Korea had decided to send about 12,000 troops to support Russia, with 1,500 already deployed in Russia's Far East.

The council said it posed a "serious security threat" to both South Korea and the international community, violating UN Security Council resolutions banning military cooperation with North Korea.

Kim Tae-hye emphasized that if this cooperation continues, South Korea will take decisive measures together with international partners.

Category
Economics
Publication date

$33 trillion in global trade at risk because of Trump

Trump is capable of destroying the global economy
Source:  Bloomberg

Foreign economists are sounding the alarm as US leader Donald Trump plans to impose the largest trade restrictions in 100 years. This decision will be a powerful blow to the global trading system and will provoke many serious problems.

Points of attention

  • The global trade policy uncertainty index has reached its highest level since 2009, indicating the heightened risk and instability associated with Trump's trade decisions.
  • Under the maximum approach, the average tariff rates in the US could increase to 28 percentage points, resulting in a significant decline in GDP and a notable increase in prices over the next few years.

Trump is capable of destroying the global economy

A statement on this occasion was made by Nomura Holdings Inc. Chief Economist Rob Subbaraman.

He points out that the lack of details about the structure, size and purpose of the tariffs has left the world "flying blind".

According to the expert, about $33 trillion in global trade could be affected by Donald Trump.

It is also impossible to ignore the fact that the global trade policy uncertainty index soared to its highest level since 2009 on April 1.

A group of economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has suggested that the average U.S. tariff for all countries in 2025 will likely increase by 15 percentage points.

There is a high probability that this, in turn, will trigger an increase in core inflation, weakening growth and increasing the risk of recession.

Under the maximum approach, average tariff rates in the US would increase to 28 percentage points, leading to a 4% decline in US GDP and an increase in prices of almost 2.5% over two to three years.

Category
Ukraine
Publication date

Umerov announced the completion of the first stage of the VLK reform

Rustem Umerov
Umerov named the main changes for those liable for military service:

According to the head of the Ministry of Defense, Rustem Umerov, the first stage of the reform of military medical commissions has been completed. In fact, this means that from April 1, all VLKs must issue their conclusions electronically.

Points of attention

  • The reform of the VLK is part of a broader transformation supported by the Ministry of Health, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and international partners.
  • The collaboration with governments of the UK and Germany, BRDO Effective Regulation Office, and the Special Defense Advisor Program signifies the significant support for the VLK reform efforts.

Umerov named the main changes for those liable for military service:

  1. VLK conclusions are created online — quickly, transparently, without bureaucracy and corruption risks;

  2. data automatically enters the Oberig registry;

  3. information about suitability or non-suitability and the date of passing the VLK are displayed faster in the Reserve+ application;

  4. You no longer need to personally bring documents to the CCC.

Since March 1, we have been preparing the system for launch: VLK employees have been training, registering in the electronic office. The teams from Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Khmelnytskyi regions have been the most actively involved in the transition.

Rustem Umerov

Rustem Umerov

Head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

As Umerov noted, the reform of the VLK is part of a large-scale transformation that the Ministry of Defense is implementing together with the Ministry of Health, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and international partners.

This process is being supported by the governments of the UK and Germany, the BRDO Effective Regulation Office and the Special Defense Advisor Program.

In January, we launched electronic referrals to VLK in the Reserve+ application — it's already working. And now we've taken the next important step.

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